There are some people that believe poker is a game of luck rather than a game of skill. They insist that it’s entirely in the lap of the gods whether the dealer turns over a winning card on the river or not. Those people couldn’t be further from the truth. Poker is a game of skill. It’s a battle of hearts and minds, with those capable of reading situations and opponents best more likely to prevail in each hand they play. Meanwhile, those capable of accurately calculating the odds of either themselves or their opponent winning a hand in any given situation will also stand the best chance of being a winning player in the long-term.
Consequently, mathematics plays a big role in determining the long-term profitability and success of any poker player. Of course, it cannot be assumed that those unfamiliar with poker mathematics will be losing players, but there’s no doubt that having sound knowledge of pot odds in every hand can give you an advantage over those that don’t use probability as a basis for their bets at the table. But is poker math the most important strategy in poker? Let’s first consider the core strategies adopted in poker before determining whether math plays an integral part in decision-making in every hand.
The key strategies used in poker
- Starting hand selection
Undoubtedly the most fundamental strategy for any Texas Hold’em poker player, choosing the right starting hands to play will give you the best possible chance of winning long-term at the tables. Those that value a cautious approach will adopt a tight strategy, playing relatively few hands and taking little risk. Those who like to test their opponents and put them under pressure will adopt a more aggressive starting hand selection, opening pots with big raises.
- The use of table position
Using your position at the table is another crucial strategy. Sitting on the dealer button is the most preferred spot as you will act last in each round of betting, giving you plenty of free information on your opponents’ hands. It’s not always possible to play on the dealer button, however, but it’s always good to play in ‘late’ position as opposed to ‘early’ position.
- Knowing your opponents
Impeccable hand selection and use of table position are two key traits of a profitable poker player, but being able to understand how your opponents’ minds work is another important skill to have in your arsenal. You’ll need to know which players you can bluff i.e. push them off a hand and encourage them to fold with a large bet or raise. Being convincing with your bluffs is an impressive trait. You need to be capable of ensuring your actions at the table tell the right story of the hand and are logical enough to make your opponent assume you have the strongest hand.
Maths and probability: Ensuring long-term profitability
Out of the three core strategies of poker discussed above, starting hand selection is not directly linked to mathematics and pot odds, simply because the pot is empty at the start of every hand. However, in terms of using table position and making decisions based on the mindset/skillset of your opponents will undoubtedly be based on probability. Put simply, poker pot odds calculate the number of ‘outs’ you have, i.e. the number of cards that can enhance your current hand, in relation to the amount of money you have to call to see the next community card. Pot odds are vital for any poker player looking to make money over the long-term, as it will pinpoint game situations where it is and isn’t profitable to chase your draw in the next community card. Calculating pot odds in Omaha is slightly different to Texas Hold’em, in that you’re likely to have more outs due to having two additional hole cards.
The best exponents of math in poker
There are many big-name professional poker players that favor the mathematical approach to the game rather than living on instincts. Let’s take a look at some of the math whizzes that have sought to beat the game of poker throughout the decades.
Californian, Chris ‘Jesus’ Ferguson is one of the most fascinating professionals on the poker scene. With six World Series of Poker (WSOP) bracelets to his name, including the Main Event bracelet in 2000, Ferguson is a rare breed in terms of the way he plays the statistics much more than his opponents. His parents both had doctorate degrees in mathematics and his father has taught game theory and theoretical probability at UCLA for many years. It’s therefore unsurprising that Ferguson utilizes a deep understanding of game theory and computer simulations to enhance his understanding of in-game situations.